Significant Decline in Birth Rates
Recent studies indicate a historic decline in birth rates across North African countries, which is projected to lead to significant demographic changes in the region. This trend, characterized as "stable in the long term," suggests a gradual aging of the population and a slowdown in overall population growth. The National Institute of Demographic Studies in France has highlighted a rapid and simultaneous drop in fertility rates in Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia, with the number of children born per woman plummeting from 7 to 8 in the 1970s to nearly half that by the early 1990s.
As of 2024, Morocco's fertility rate has reached a historic low of 1.97 children per woman, while Tunisia's rate is estimated at 1.58 for 2023, potentially dropping to 1.53 in 2024. Algeria's fertility rate stands at 2.61 children per woman. Notably, Algeria experienced a rebound from 2000 to 2017, where the fertility rate exceeded three children per woman, and Tunisia saw a similar but less pronounced resurgence, hitting 2.4 children per woman in 2014 before declining again. In contrast, Morocco has witnessed a continuous and gradual decline in fertility since the 1990s.
Factors Contributing to Demographic Changes
The recent decline in birth rates can be attributed to various factors. In Tunisia, the trend reflects a delay in the age of marriage, which has reached an average of 28.9 years for women in 2024. In Morocco, the decline is more closely associated with increased access to contraception, with 71% of married Moroccan women using some form of birth control, compared to only 50-55% in Algeria and Tunisia (down from 60-65% at the beginning of the millennium). These demographic changes are also linked to extended educational periods and delayed entry into the workforce, particularly affecting young women.
The demographic study concludes that North African countries are experiencing population aging, evidenced by a significant decrease in the proportion of individuals under 20, while the percentage of those aged 60 and above has risen sharply from 8% in 1997 to 17% in 2024 in Tunisia alone. The study notes that while the aging process is more moderate in Algeria (10.5% for those 60 and older in 2023) and Morocco (13.8% in 2024), it is expected to accelerate in the coming years. Such shifts present notable implications for the region's economic and social structures, highlighting the urgent need for adaptive policies to address these demographic transformations.
As reported by hespress.com.
