Fitch Ratings Maintains BMCI's Ratings on Negative Watch
On June 19, 2026, Fitch Ratings announced the maintenance of Banque Marocaine pour le Commerce et l'Industrie's (BMCI) National Long-Term Rating at 'AA+(mar)' and its National Short-Term Rating at 'F1+(mar)'. This decision places BMCI on Rating Watch Negative (RWN), primarily influenced by the anticipated sale of BNP Paribas S.A.'s (BNPP) stake in BMCI, which currently stands at 67%. The implications of this sale are significant, as it suggests a potential reduction in support from BNPP, which has been a crucial backer of BMCI, given that the subsidiary's importance to the parent company is diminishing.
Fitch's evaluation takes into account BNPP's robust capacity to provide support, as reflected in its Issuer Default Rating. However, the planned divestment indicates that BMCI will transition to a non-core subsidiary status for BNPP, thereby altering the dynamics of support that BMCI has historically benefited from. The completion of the sale is expected in the fourth quarter of 2026, and upon its finalization, it is anticipated that Fitch will reassess BMCI's ratings to align them more closely with sovereign support considerations, given that the bank's National Long-Term Rating is unlikely to drop below 'AA(mar)' even in a downgraded scenario.
Key Financial Indicators and Future Outlook
BMCI's size and market share remain modest, with corporate loans making up over 60% of its lending portfolio, backed by BNPP's corporate banking expertise, which grants BMCI access to multinational clients. The bank's conservative risk profile is a reflection of BNPP's stringent risk management policies, although these are tailored for the Moroccan market. Despite these strengths, BMCI faces challenges, particularly with a Stage 3 loans ratio of 12.4% as of the end of 2025, exceeding the sector average of approximately 8%. This elevated ratio indicates a cautious approach to recognizing impaired loans, yet it also highlights a legacy of impaired exposures that the bank must manage. Additionally, BMCI's profitability, evidenced by a return on equity that improved to 8.9% in the first quarter of 2026 from 5.6% in 2025, remains below the sector average, showcasing the pressures the bank faces.
Capitalization levels are only adequate, with BMCI's common equity Tier 1 ratio decreasing to 10% by the end of 2025, down from 11.1% at the end of 2021. While this ratio is still comfortably above the regulatory minimum of 8%, it reflects the impact of increased dividend payouts and recovering loan growth. Furthermore, BMCI's funding and liquidity position appears robust, primarily relying on retail and low-cost deposits, which constituted 79% of its funding at the end of the first quarter of 2026. This funding strategy supports a lower cost of funding compared to peers, while liquidity remains well-managed under BNPP's oversight, with a Basel III liquidity coverage ratio of 125% reported at the same period.
The outlook for BMCI's ratings is heavily dependent on the completion of the stake sale to Holmarcom Finance Company. Should the transaction proceed as planned, Fitch anticipates a downgrade of BMCI's ratings to align them with the bank's standalone credit profile and the expected support from Moroccan authorities. Conversely, if the sale does not materialize, there is a likelihood that BMCI's ratings would be affirmed, and the RWN would be lifted. The relationship with BNPP remains a crucial factor in determining BMCI's ratings, and any increase in its strategic significance to BNPP could result in an upgrade, although such an outcome appears improbable given the current trajectory of the planned sale.
As reported by fitchratings.com.
