A recent study published on Wednesday by the French National Institute for Demographic Studies has unveiled a significant and stable long-term decline in birth rates across the Maghreb countries, highlighting a slowdown in population growth accompanied by a gradual increase in aging demographics. This alarming trend is most evident in Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia, which have all experienced a rapid and simultaneous decline in fertility rates. In the 1970s, fertility rates in these countries were between seven and eight children per woman, but by the early 1990s, this figure had nearly halved.
According to the findings of the study, Morocco is projected to record its lowest fertility rate in history in 2024, with an estimated 1.97 children per woman. In Tunisia, the fertility rate was reported at 1.58 in 2023, with expectations to drop further to 1.53 in 2024. Meanwhile, Algeria's fertility rate stands at 2.61 children per woman for the current year. The study notes that Algeria experienced a brief resurgence in fertility rates between 2000 and 2017, where the average surpassed three children per woman. Tunisia saw a modest increase to 2.4 children in 2014, but this was followed by a downward trend, while Morocco's decline has been consistent and progressive since the 1990s.
Factors Influencing the Decline
The study attributes this decline to several factors, including the rising age of marriage. In Tunisia, for example, the average age of women at marriage has reached 28.9 years in 2024. Additionally, there has been an expansion in the use of contraceptive methods in Morocco, with 71% of married Moroccan women employing some form of family planning, compared to 50-55% in Algeria and Tunisia. This marks a significant increase from the early 2000s when these rates were between 60-65%. The study also links these demographic shifts to extended years of education and a delay in young people, particularly women, entering the workforce.
Regarding demographic composition, the study concludes that the Maghreb countries are experiencing an increasing trend of aging populations. In Tunisia, the percentage of individuals aged over 60 has risen from 8% in 1997 to 17% in 2024. While the pace of aging appears less severe in Algeria, where the proportion of those over 60 reached approximately 10.5% in 2023, and in Morocco at 13.8% in 2024, it is anticipated that these figures will accelerate in the coming years.
As reported by alaraby.com.
